We have entered totally uncharted territory.

There could be a meltdown of a single reactor or as many as six. There appears to be a burning pile of spent nuclear fuel rods on the surface outside any containment vessel. This type of problem is more like Chernobyl than anything else we have seen.

There are already containment breaches in No. 2 and No. 4. There is some evidence that No. 3 has breached. I believe it has because No. 3 was a special reactor using partially reprocessed fuel rods with a plutonium component. It burned much hotter than the other reactors.

The weather in this area features wind that has changed pretty dramatically over the last few days. At one point, the wind was blowing South South East directly toward Tokyo.

If there are further explosions and the containment vessels are further damaged, will the containment vessel be shattered or merely holed? If the containment vessel is destroyed there will be a massive release of radiation. However, material to dampen the radiation can be dropped directly into the reactor. If, on the other hand, a hole is blown in the containment vessel, a continuous plume of radioactive will issue. It will be very difficult to get material to cover and neutralize the meltdown under that circumstance because the intact section of the containment vessel will protect the meltdown.

There is evidence that there are more discarded fuel rods near the reactors. I do not know this for a fact. But it is consistent with what we have seen of the practices of the Japanese nuclear industry.

I’m probably missing a few things but look at a list of the factors I have cited.

1. From one to six reactors could meltdown singly or together.

2. Surface fuel rods could be as dangerous as reactor meltdown and at least one storage area is burning. It could produce a surface explosion similar in a way to Chernobyl.

3. The changing wind patterns (this is winter and a rough one) could drive a radioactive cloud in almost any direction. If the reactors meltdown at different times the individual radiation clouds could go in different directions.

4. Will the containment vessels be shattered revealing the core or will they be fractured or holed in different places? That will be a major factor in the initial release of radiation. After that, it will be a major factor in how much radiation the plant emits continuously.

5. Will the core be exposed enough so that chemicals slowing or stopping the nuclear reaction can be delivered to the core? If not, we could be in for a very lengthy expulsion of radioactive plume into the atmosphere.

6. Are there more discarded fuel rods discarded near the any of the six reactors? If so, how many and under what storage conditions? This could radically effect the situation in terms of creating explosions and fires as well as the potential of a meltdown outside a containment vessel.

Because of these six factors, I think there is no way to develop a coherent prediction of how much radiation will reach the United States. But these factors are certainly not encouraging for the Japanese.

James Pilant