If there is a nuclear catastrophe, is there enough space on the islands remaining after a significant loss of land due to radiation to support the entire population?

Japan is approximately 145,925 square miles in size. The Chernobyl disaster rendered 10,800 square miles uninhabitable. Compared to the total area of Japan, this is not a lot of land. However, Chernobyl was a single reactor and it issued a plume of radiation for several days. In Japan, the plumes from radiation from as many six reactors and unprotected discarded fuel rods could last for weeks or even months.

What if they lose 1/3rd of the islands? That would be 48,642 square miles. Remember it is not just refugees, there will be hundreds of thousands, more likely millions of Japanese exposed to varying levels of radiation.

It may well be necessary to evacuate Japanese from the home islands.

The numbers could be from a few hundred thousand to many millions.

It would have to begin almost immediately after a meltdown.

The best way initially would be by commercial airliner. But if there were considerable numbers, there would have to be ships.

The costs would be enormous particularly the medical costs.

It’s hard to hypothesize without some estimate of how much land will be too irradiated to be safe and for how long.

Nevertheless, planning should go forward. The situation at the plants is critical and apparently getting worse.

It is better to begin thinking about these things now, rather than waiting until confronted by a desperate situation.

James Pilant