If there is a nuclear catastrophe, is there enough space on the islands remaining after a significant loss of land due to radiation to support the entire population?

Japan is approximately 145,925 square miles in size. The Chernobyl disaster rendered 10,800 square miles uninhabitable. Compared to the total area of Japan, this is not a lot of land. However, Chernobyl was a single reactor and it issued a plume of radiation for several days. In Japan, the plumes from radiation from as many six reactors and unprotected discarded fuel rods could last for weeks or even months.

What if they lose 1/3rd of the islands? That would be 48,642 square miles. Remember it is not just refugees, there will be hundreds of thousands, more likely millions of Japanese exposed to varying levels of radiation.

It may well be necessary to evacuate Japanese from the home islands.

The numbers could be from a few hundred thousand to many millions.

It would have to begin almost immediately after a meltdown.

The best way initially would be by commercial airliner. But if there were considerable numbers, there would have to be ships.

The costs would be enormous particularly the medical costs.

It’s hard to hypothesize without some estimate of how much land will be too irradiated to be safe and for how long.

Nevertheless, planning should go forward. The situation at the plants is critical and apparently getting worse.

It is better to begin thinking about these things now, rather than waiting until confronted by a desperate situation.

James Pilant

We have entered totally uncharted territory.

There could be a meltdown of a single reactor or as many as six. There appears to be a burning pile of spent nuclear fuel rods on the surface outside any containment vessel. This type of problem is more like Chernobyl than anything else we have seen.

There are already containment breaches in No. 2 and No. 4. There is some evidence that No. 3 has breached. I believe it has because No. 3 was a special reactor using partially reprocessed fuel rods with a plutonium component. It burned much hotter than the other reactors.

The weather in this area features wind that has changed pretty dramatically over the last few days. At one point, the wind was blowing South South East directly toward Tokyo.

If there are further explosions and the containment vessels are further damaged, will the containment vessel be shattered or merely holed? If the containment vessel is destroyed there will be a massive release of radiation. However, material to dampen the radiation can be dropped directly into the reactor. If, on the other hand, a hole is blown in the containment vessel, a continuous plume of radioactive will issue. It will be very difficult to get material to cover and neutralize the meltdown under that circumstance because the intact section of the containment vessel will protect the meltdown.

There is evidence that there are more discarded fuel rods near the reactors. I do not know this for a fact. But it is consistent with what we have seen of the practices of the Japanese nuclear industry.

I’m probably missing a few things but look at a list of the factors I have cited.

1. From one to six reactors could meltdown singly or together.

2. Surface fuel rods could be as dangerous as reactor meltdown and at least one storage area is burning. It could produce a surface explosion similar in a way to Chernobyl.

3. The changing wind patterns (this is winter and a rough one) could drive a radioactive cloud in almost any direction. If the reactors meltdown at different times the individual radiation clouds could go in different directions.

4. Will the containment vessels be shattered revealing the core or will they be fractured or holed in different places? That will be a major factor in the initial release of radiation. After that, it will be a major factor in how much radiation the plant emits continuously.

5. Will the core be exposed enough so that chemicals slowing or stopping the nuclear reaction can be delivered to the core? If not, we could be in for a very lengthy expulsion of radioactive plume into the atmosphere.

6. Are there more discarded fuel rods discarded near the any of the six reactors? If so, how many and under what storage conditions? This could radically effect the situation in terms of creating explosions and fires as well as the potential of a meltdown outside a containment vessel.

Because of these six factors, I think there is no way to develop a coherent prediction of how much radiation will reach the United States. But these factors are certainly not encouraging for the Japanese.

James Pilant

So, it’s come down to this. I have heard that the next 24 to 48 hours will be critical. I am guessing the 18th or the 19th myself. My heart goes out to those workers who are about to make a difficult sacrifice.

James Pilant

From the Huffington Post –

According to the official, the U.S. believes a larger evacuation zone should be imposed and that the next 24-48 hours are “critical.”

“It would be hard to describe how alarming this is right now,” ABC quoted the anonymous official as saying.

The nuclear crisis in Japan has intensified since the massive earthquake first damaged nuclear facilities. On Wednesday, the White House advised Americans within 50 miles of the Fukushima nuclear facility to evacuate and plant employees were temporarily forced to retreat as radiation levels “soared.”

The difficulties caused by the evacuations were blamed for “escalating” the chances of a meltdown.

“They need to stop pulling out people — and step up with getting them back in the reactor to cool it. There is a recognition this is a suicide mission,” the unnamed U.S. official was quoted by ABC as saying.

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s chief claimed there is no water in one of the spent fuel pools at the Fukushima nuclear plant, which Japanese officials have denied. According to the AP, “If NRC Chairman Gregory Jaczko is correct, this would mean there’s nothing to stop the fuel rods from getting hotter and ultimately melting down.” White House spokesman Jay Carney said on Wednesday that the situation in Japan is “deteriorating and fast-moving.”

Cables recently released by WikiLeaks show the Japanese government was warned about the design of its nuclear reactors years ago, and did not act.