Fallout from Chinese Nuclear Test Traveled to the United States in Six Days

I’ve been looking for this for days. I remembered that when I was a little boy that the Chinese tested a nuclear weapon and the fallout reached the United States very quickly. (I was ten years old.) My father used to make sure I saw historical things on television like all the Mercury and Gemini launches, so it was probably something he made sure I saw. I did not think I would find it but there it is, fallout traveling from the Lop Nur Test Site in China to all over the United States.

If any of you have any more on this, I want to see it.

James Pilant

Fig. 1. The Fifth Chinese Nuclear Test was Detonated on Dec. 28, 1966. It “involved thermonuclear material,” and, according to the AEC press release, was a nuclear test in the atmosphere at their test site near Lop Nor.” As indicated above, by the end of Dec. 31, 1966 the leading edge of its fallout cloud extended as far east as the dotted line shown running from Arizona to the Great Lakes. ORNL DWG. 73-4611

Fallout from China Nuclear Test Traveled to U.S.

From the web site –Nuclear War Survival Skills

It produced fallout that by January 1, 1967 resulted in the fallout cloud covering most of the United States. This one Chinese explosion produced about 15 million curies of iodine- 131 – roughly the same amount as the total release of iodine- 131 into the atmosphere from the Chernobyl nuclear power plant disaster. (The Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory’s preliminary estimate is that 10-50 million curies of iodine- 131 were released during the several days of the Chernobyl disaster; in contrast, its estimate of the iodine- 131 released during the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant accident, the worst commercial nuclear power plant accident in American history, is about 20 curies.)

Fig. 1 is from an Oak Ridge National Laboratory report, Trans-Pacific Fallout and Protective Countermeasures (ORNL-4900), written by the author of this book in 1970, but not published until 1973. No classified information was used in any version of this report, that summarized findings of the unclassified Trans-Pacific Fallout Seminar funded by the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission. This seminar was attended by experts who came from several research organizations and deliberated at Oak Ridge National Laboratory for two days in March of 1970.

Later in 1970 a final draft of this report was submitted to Washington for approval before publication. It was promptly classified. Publication without censorship was not permitted until after it was declassified in its entirety in 1973. None of the recommendations in this pioneering report were acted upon, but many of them are given in this chapter.

The findings and conclusions of the above mentioned 1970 Oak Ridge National Laboratory Trans-Pacific Fallout Seminar, summarized in the 1973 report, were confirmed by a later, more comprehensive study, Assessment and Control of the Transoceanic Fallout Threat, by H. Lee and W. E. Strope (1974; 117 pages), Report EGU 2981 of Stanford Research Institute.

Fallout from the approximately 300 kiloton Chinese test explosion shown in Fig. 1 caused milk from cows that fed on pastures near Oak Ridge, Tennessee and elsewhere to be contaminated with radioiodine, although not with enough to be hazardous to health. However, this milk contamination (up to 900 picocuries of radioactive iodine per liter) and the measured dose rates from the gamma rays emitted from fallout particles deposited in different parts of the United States indicate that trans-Pacific fallout from even an overseas nuclear war in which “only” two or three hundred megatons would be exploded could result in tens of thousands of unprepared Americans suffering thyroid injury.

Jet Stream Over the United States – 3/18/2011

Here’s the jet stream as it looked on 3/18 over the United States. Right now it’s covering a lot of ground.

James Pilant

JetStream U.S. 3/18/11

March 17th, 2011 Satellite Image of the Fukushima Daiichi Plant

Institute for Science and International Security

DigitalGlobe has released a new commercial satellite image of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear site in Japan taken at 10:55AM local time on March 17, 2011.  Steam continues to vent out of the top of the Unit 3 reactor building.  Steam also appears to be continuing to vent out of the side of the Unit 2 reactor building.

 


Chernobyl Radiation Map

This is a radiation map from Chernobyl from the web site, 14 HERTZ. It shows how much variation occurs through changes in wind direction.

James Pilant

WorldWind NASA Shows World Wind Patterns – Could it show a Meltdown Cloud of Radiation?

One of my commentators  asked if there was a way to look at the wind patterns over the whole earth.

An excellent question.

So, I looked around and found WorldWind.  After playing with it for a while, and adding a plug in, it is showing me world cloud patterns.

Are these accurate to now?

I’m using data from NRL Monterey “Real Time” Weather v.1.1.

I chose the last two days of cloud in the Eastern Pacific. It gave me cloud patterns. Obviously this is not my field but it looks like if there was a meltdown you might very well be able to see a visible cloud. If the radiation was too dispersed to see it, you could still follow the cloud patterns.

If anybody knows more about this than I do or has better web sites for this kind of thing. Tell me. I’ll put them up.

James Pilant

Is it ethical to send workers into a nuclear meltdown? (via Lauren Bloom’s Blog)

Lauren Bloom

Lauren Bloom writes on ethical issues. I follow her blog on a regular basis (you should too). I like the thoughts in this entry. They are certainly relevant when so many workers  are putting their lives on the line in Japan. Some have already died and many have been injured.

Here, she discusses the ethical criteria for decision makers to send people in harm’s way.

James Pilant

An excerpt from the post

Of course, the world has always been full of dangerous jobs and, luckily for the rest of us, there have always been brave souls willing to do them. Still, if those of us who stay safe at home while heroes risk their lives are going to be able to look ourselves in the mirror, it’s critically important for a few things to happen. First, the folks who go into danger need to do so voluntarily – no coercion allowed. Second, they need to be told honestly in advance how serious the risks appear to be, not misled by falsely optimistic estimates. Third, they need to be given the necessary logistical support – safety equipment, medical attention, escape craft, you name it – to do the job and get out in one reasonably healthy piece.

(this is just a part of the post, you should click on the link and read the whole article – jp)

A Personal Note from James Pilant

James Pilant

I posted 11 times yesterday and I have spent the last six days frantically trying to keep up with events. So, I am only going to post a few times tonight, so I can catch my breath. I will be in the middle of writing something and scanning the Internet at the same time, and what I am writing needs to be revised or dropped because of new events. Tomorrow, I’ll be back at full power.

I want to thank the many people who have commented in the past few days. You have made my work much easier because you have reassured me that what I am writing is informative and useful, you challenge me with your questions, test my knowledge and training regularly, and have been very polite and kind in your comments. Thank You!

James Pilant

United States to Monitor Japanese Reactors With Sophisticated Drone

I strongly suspect the United States government is fed up with the lack of accurate information being provided by the Japanese government. This will give the American government an independent source of information with a powerful radar capable of seeing through the smoke and dust of the reactor site. These drones can stay in the air for almost 24 hours on one mission.

James Pilant

From the New York Times

United States Air Force officials announced Wednesday that a Global Hawk remotely piloted surveillance plane would be sent on missions over Japan to help the government assess damage from the earthquake and the tsunami. A Pentagon official said the drone was expected to fly over the stricken nuclear plant.

From Wikipedia

In role and operational design, the Global Hawk is similar to the Lockheed U-2, the venerable 1950s spy plane. It is a theater commander’s asset to provide a broad overview and systematic target surveillance. For this purpose, the Global Hawk is able to provide high resolution Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR)—that can penetrate cloud-cover and sandstorms— and Electro-Optical/Infrared (EO/IR) imagery at long range with long loiter times over target areas. It can survey as much as 40,000 square miles (100,000 square kilometers) of terrain a day.

Missions for the Global Hawk cover the spectrum of intelligence collection capability to support forces in worldwide peace, crisis, and wartime operations. According to the Air Force, the capabilities of the aircraft allow more precise targeting of weapons and better protection of forces through superior surveillance capabilities.

“It’s Worse Than a Meltdown.”

Fuel Rods

Spent fuel rods stored on top of the damaged reactors are using up the water meant to keep the cool. At least one pool is boiling.

Is it common practice to store spent fuel rods on top of a reactor? Apparently, there were some inside the buildings housing the containment chamber. Since two of these have exploded, it would appear they have been scattered about.

Does anybody else store spent nuclear fuel on top of reactors?

James Pilant

It’s worse than a meltdown,” said David A. Lochbaum, a nuclear engineer at the Union of Concerned Scientists who worked as an instructor on the kinds of General Electric reactors used in Japan. “The reactor is inside thick walls, and the spent fuel of Reactors 1 and 3 is out in the open.”

A spokesman for the Japanese company that runs the stricken reactors said in an interview on Monday that the spent fuel at the Fukushima Daiichi and Daini plants had been left uncooled since shortly after the quake.

The company, Tokyo Electric, has not been able to cool the spent fuel pools because power has been knocked out, said Johei Shiomi, the spokesman. “There may be some heating up,” he said.

From the article

Even as workers race to prevent the radioactive cores of the damaged nuclear reactors in Japan from melting down, concerns are growing that nearby pools holding spent fuel rods could pose an even greater danger.

The pools, which sit on the top level of the reactor buildings and keep spent fuel submerged in water, have lost their cooling systems and the Japanese have been unable to take emergency steps because of the multiplying crises.

By late Tuesday, the water meant to cool spent fuel rods in the No. 4 reactor was boiling, Japan’s nuclear watchdog said. If the water evaporates and the rods run dry, they could overheat and catch fire, potentially spreading radioactive materials in dangerous clouds.

Where Would Japanese Refugees Go? The United States?

In small numbers under a hundred thousand perhaps even double that, local nations such as South Korea, China and Taiwan would probably be willing to bear the weight of a temporary evacuation.

The issue becomes more problematic as the numbers increase.

The Chinese and the Koreans have memories of Japanese occupation before and during the Second World War. It is unlikely they will allow any large numbers of refugees.

The Philippines are also unlikely to accept any large numbers for the same reason. Other Asian countries have an underdeveloped infrastructure unlikely to absorb any large numbers of foreigners.

The United States is the most logical nation for a large number of Japanese.

Why? First the United States already has 1,204,205 Japanese. And there is a fairly wide geographic distribution.

From Wikipedia

In the 2000 census, the largest Japanese American communities were in California with 394,896, Hawaii with 296,674, Washington with 56,210, New York with 45,237, and Illinois with 27,702.

The United States is already a multicultural society open to new languages and new ideas. Unlike most countries there is a great deal of land resources available. Declines in population in the “rust belt” and in some Northeastern leave large areas with excess capacities – closed schools, factories and numerous other building, houses and businesses. An energetic and well educated population could radically change the nature of these parts of the United States.

Once there has been a series of meltdowns, these kinds of considerations will have to be taken into account

James Pilant