We have heard many reassurances that it will not reach “harmful” levels, whatever that means.
I have been on the internet and seen various web sites predict everything from serious contamination to apocalyptic conditions.
Of course, the nuclear industry does not believe there is going to be a problem.
However, since they predicted that the current calamity was virtually impossible, and then that it would not get worse, and on at least one occasion suggested that the Japanese crisis was a “positive” development for nuclear power – I don’t believe anything they say.
Where does that leave us? I agree with those that say that if there is a meltdown at a Japanese nuclear plant, a great deal of the radiation will be dispersed on the way here. I do need to point out that there are now 6 nuclear plants in serious difficulty. Six meltdowns will produce a great deal more radioactivity than one.
I would like to point out that we have never actually had a nuclear plant like this do a full meltdown and almost certainly meltdown until it hits the ground water. This may be a far more difficult event than has been predicted.
But my biggest worry is duration. After a meltdown, how long will the reactor (or reactors) vent? One of the reasons that concerns me is that at Chernobyl, the Soviet Union had enormous resources to call upon. Japanese society, infrastructure and military are all in disarray. Can they seal a radiation vent from a meltdown? If so, how many vents from how many reactors? And how long will it take them?
Now, it appears that there is a great deal of nuclear waste at the site, at least some of which is in the form of used control rods. This is going to complicate efforts to get the situation under control now and to deal with any other crisis that develops.
My prediction is that those parts of the United States in the Pacific Northwest will receive radiation roughly equivalent to the amount at the far reaches of Chernobyl, about the same as the United Kingdom received from that incident.
This is from the Executive report from THE OTHER REPORT ON CHERNOBYL (TORCH).
In terms of their surface areas, Belarus (22% of its land area) and Austria (13%) were
most affected by higher levels of contamination. Other countries were seriously affected;
for example, more than 5% of Ukraine, Finland and Sweden were contaminated to high
levels (> 40,000 Bq/m2 caesium-137). More than 80% of Moldova, the European part of
Turkey, Slovenia, Switzerland, Austria and the Slovak Republic were contaminated to
lower levels (> 4,000 Bq/m2 caesium-137). And 44% of Germany and 34% of the UK were
similarly affected.
Of course, I am hypothesizing a rapid transit by wind across the Pacific and a continuous post meltdown venting at the reactors for some weeks.
James Pilant
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